FrontPageBets' horse racing expert handicaps the 154th Belmont Stakes

Rich Strike has evolved.

The winner of the 2022 Kentucky Derby was once regarded as a complete fluke; a lucky, unexpected party crasher who would most likely soon recede from the thoroughbred horse racing scene. Over the past five weeks, that viewpoint has slowly changed. He is now regarded by some as a legitimate contender in the final leg of the Triple Crown, this Saturday’s 154th Belmont Stakes.

FrontPageBets breaks down the field and best bets.

Rich Strike came off as the third favorite Tuesday at 7-2. Don’t be fooled.

And don’t forget, before the Kentucky Derby, he was regarded as a complete outsider when compared to his competition because of his record. He deserved to be 80-1, but because he won at that price, it makes him wildly appealing to the general public.

After winning the biggest race of his career, Rich Strike’s little-known trainer Eric Reed, suddenly morphed into some kind of conservative trainer of British horses, channeling his inner John Gosden (Britain’s top trainer), he decided to skip the Preakness.  

That didn’t spark that much doubt about Rich Strike; in fact, there’s been some support for Reed, observers stating that he was making a smart decision to wait for the Belmont.

On Preakness day, Rich Strike had a fast four-furlong workout in Kentucky (can’t help but think he probably would have been ready to race based on that). Then Reed scheduled a workout between races at Churchill Downs and Rich Strike looked good, timed at 59 seconds for five furlongs.

So, now many people are talking about how good he looks, how waiting for the Belmont was the smart move. His gallops since he shipped to New York have also been praised.

Don’t fall for it. Never forget this: Rich Strike, running near the back in the Derby, benefited from one of the most swiftly run first quarter-miles and half-miles in the race’s history. That pace set the race up for a late runner like Rich Strike, who was skillfully guided through the gasping and slowing frontrunners by jockey Sonny Leon.

That type of pace will not happen in the Belmont Stakes. It never does. In fact, Rich Strike may never get another pace scenario as good as he got in the Derby. Also, historically, the 1.5-mile Belmont distance favors horses that will race forwardly at a reasonable pace. Those are the type of horses you should be looking at to find the winner of the Belmont.

Clearly, that starts with We The People, in the No. 1 spot after the post draw, and the 2-1 morning-line favorite. 

He has won three of his four starts including the Peter Pan in his last start at Belmont Park. In the Peter Pan, he went to the lead immediately and won the 1 1/8 race by 10 1/4 lengths over a track labelled good. There is some discussion that he loves a track that has some moisture in it. It’s early but showers are in Saturday’s forecast which could only help him.

Before the Peter Pan, We The People won the first race of his career at one mile by 5 3/4 lengths. He followed that with a five-length win in a 1 1/16 mile allowance race.

Then came his one clunker when he was moved up against tougher competition in the Arkansas Derby. He seemed perturbed before the race and finished seventh but was five-wide running into the first turn. You could argue he lost all chance right then.

He's trained by an under-the-radar guy with skills, Rodolphe Brisset and he will be ridden by Flavien Prat, who can be a master of pace and that is what’s needed. We The People’s speed figure in the Peter Pan is the highest one recorded by the entire Belmont field. Yes, faster than Rich Strike’s Kentucky Derby.

Creative Minister (6-1) could also fit the profile. It would be surprising if he took an early lead, but jockey Brian Hernandez should keep him within striking distance. There is room for big improvement which makes him a serious contender.

Mo Donegal, the second favorite at 5-2, could very well go off the favorite because he’s New York-based, trained by one of New York’s top trainers, Todd Pletcher, and ridden by New York’s leading jockey, Irad Ortiz.

Ortiz took Mo Donegal on somewhat of a magical mystery tour in the Derby. He broke from the No. 1 post, but by the time the field approached the top of the stretch he was in the middle of the track, losing ground with every stride.

Ortiz will almost assuredly find a less cluttered and straighter path this time, but he also needs to make sure Mo Donegal doesn’t fall too far behind early.

Nest (8-1) may attract some money as the only filly in the race, plus she’s also trained by Pletcher who won the Belmont with another female, Rags to Riches. Nest has an outstanding record, winning three of her five races and she was second in the Kentucky Oaks. Despite her successes, she comes up a little short on speed figures and will have to improve sharply.

Pletcher, however, has exuded confidence, telling the Daily Racing Form that he feels Nest is ideally suited for the marathon distance. No doubt the overall weakness of this field also made it inviting.

Skippylongstocking, Barber Road and Golden Glider are all similar. They’ve yet to break through in a stakes race and offer little else to make one think they could win the Belmont.

Two horses will be overbet in the race, Rich Strike and Nest. Rich Strike is a classic case of a horse to bet against; he benefited from one of the fastest early paces in Kentucky Derby history. A long-term, winning wagering strategy is to bet against horses who have had favorable racing conditions in their previous race.

Nest has an excellent record and great connections but her speed figures at this point are too slow. She’d have to improve and maybe she could if she loves the longer distance, as Pletcher as stated, but I wouldn’t gamble too much on it.

Your money is better invested elsewhere starting with We The People. Use We The People on top in exactas and trifectas with Creative Minister and Mo Donegal. Maybe you could also use Nest, even though the value may not be great. You should look at Skippylongstocking and Barber Road as a possibility in trifectas.

Sullivan's prediction: 1. We The People, 2. Creative Minister, 3. Mo Donegal.

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