Michigan had a 98.6% win probability with 11 seconds left. Iowa still found a way.
Inside the plays that defined Iowa’s stunning win over Michigan
ANN ARBOR, Mich. — No. 17 Iowa walked into Michigan Stadium and emerged with an unlikely 20-19 win over No. 18 Michigan on Saturday.
The Hawkeyes (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) trailed for nearly 45 minutes, got outgained 429-285, lost the time of possession battle 34:29-25:31 and averaged just 2.4 yards per rush in the victory. With two minutes remaining, the ESPN Analytics win probability chart gave the Wolverines (3-1, 0-1 Big Ten) a 92.3% chance of winning. With 11 seconds left, that probability rose to 98.6%.
Sep 26, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes offensive line Trevor Lauck (59) reacts during the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
Rick Osentoski
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Sep 26, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back Zach Lutmer (6) tackles Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Andrew Marsh (3) during the second half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
Rick Osentoski
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Sep 26, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes mascot performs before the game against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
Rick Osentoski
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Sep 26, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes wide receiver Reece Vander Zee (2) celebrates against the Michigan Wolverines during the second half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
Rick Osentoski
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Kirk Ferentz, Iowa players react to Hawkeyes' last-second win over Michigan
ANN ARBOR, Mich. — No. 17 Iowa picked up its first Big Ten-ranked road win in more than 10 years with a last-second 20-19 win over No. 18 Michigan.
The Hawkeyes (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) led for just 2:03 before scoring a go-ahead touchdown on the game's final play to upset the Wolverines (3-1, 0-1 Big Ten). Michigan outgained Iowa 429-285 and won the time of possession battle 34:29 to 25:31 in the loss.
How Iowa stunned Michigan with last-second touchdown in Ann Arbor
ANN ARBOR, Mich. — No. 17 Iowa scored a last-second touchdown to stun No. 18 Michigan 20-19 on the road in Saturday’s Big Ten opener for both squads.
The Hawkeyes (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) led for just 2:03 during the contest and were outgained 429-285 by the Wolverines (3-1, 0-1 Big Ten) before pulling out the improbable win.
Sep 26, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back Tyler Brown (2) reacts during the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz reacts with wide receiver Tony Diaz (14) and offensive lineman Cael Winter (61) in the second half agains Michigan in Ann Arbor, Mich.
Sep 26, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Hank Brown (9) looks to pass against the Michigan Wolverines during the first half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
ANN ARBOR, Mich. — No. 17 Iowa picked up its first Big Ten-ranked road win in more than 10 years with a last-second 20-19 win over No. 18 Michigan.
The Hawkeyes (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) led for just 2:03 before scoring a go-ahead touchdown on the game's final play to upset the Wolverines (3-1, 0-1 Big Ten). Michigan outgained Iowa 429-285 and won the time of possession battle 34:29 to 25:31 in the loss.
Michigan had more yards, first downs, possession and red-zone chances. Iowa had the win. Kirk Ferentz explained the philosophy behind getting “Iowa’d.”
Iowa has a major opportunity Saturday against Ohio State, with a win potentially putting the Hawkeyes firmly in the College Football Playoff conversation.
